Russian Propagandist Admits Moscow is Losing as Ukrainian Strikes Hit Oil Refineries (Video)

(BASHKORTOSTAN, RUSSIA) – Ukrainian drones struck one of Russia’s largest oil refineries in Bashkortostan overnight, causing significant damage and sparking fresh debate on the sustainability of Moscow’s war effort.

The refinery, located about 1,400 kilometres inside Russian territory, is the tenth largest in the country and has been targeted before. Videos shared online showed large fires after one of the plant’s main processing units was hit. Ukrainian security sources confirmed the strike, which follows a series of similar attacks on energy infrastructure, including the Saratov refinery earlier this week.

Ukraine’s use of long-range drones has highlighted Russia’s vulnerability deep inside its territory. Analysts say that each successful strike deprives Moscow of vital oil revenues, a key source of funding for its military campaign in Ukraine.

Russian state media has not reported extensively on the refinery damage. Instead, officials have attributed recent fuel shortages to increased summer travel. However, reports shared on Russian social media channels point to growing concern among ordinary citizens, with images showing long queues at fuel stations and complaints about shortages.

Russia’s pipeline operator, Transneft, has warned that repeated Ukrainian attacks could force a reduction in oil production. Damage to refineries, export terminals, depots and pumping stations has created logistical challenges, with fewer facilities available to process crude oil. Oil and gas revenues account for between 30 and 50 percent of Russia’s national budget, making the losses especially significant.

Russia’s oil dependency

At the same time, global oil prices have been under pressure. Brent crude has declined from its 2022 peaks, and Russian Urals oil trades at a discount of around 10 US dollars per barrel. OPEC+ members, including Saudi Arabia, have announced plans to raise production, which could further weaken Moscow’s revenues.

In parallel with refinery strikes, Ukrainian partisans and special units have been sabotaging railway infrastructure inside Russia. Recent attacks on switching stations in Yekaterinburg disrupted military logistics. While Moscow has been able to restore rail operations quickly, analysts note that repeated disruptions consume resources and delay supply movements to the front.

Ukraine has also claimed further successes against Russian air defences. Recent reports indicated that Ukrainian forces destroyed three Russian Buk-M2 and Buk-M3 systems valued at around 90 million US dollars in total. Videos released by Kyiv showed secondary explosions as missiles stored within the systems ignited.

On the battlefield, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russia’s summer offensive along four major fronts had largely failed. He highlighted that Russian forces had suffered heavy losses, particularly in the Sumy region, and lacked the manpower to mount new large-scale attacks. Zelensky estimated that Moscow currently has about 700,000 troops deployed across occupied Ukrainian territory but argued that they have been unable to secure decisive gains.

Even Russian commentators linked to pro-Kremlin circles have expressed rare public criticism. Maksim Kalashnikov, a well-known propagandist, recently acknowledged that Russia had “missed its chance” in 2014 and is now stuck in a “protracted war” that risks collapsing the domestic economy. He warned that further mobilisation would accelerate economic decline and force Moscow to accept “disadvantageous terms” in any future settlement.

Kalashnikov criticised the Kremlin for strategic mismanagement and failure to disable Ukraine’s energy system. He said that prolonged fighting was draining resources and turning formerly developed regions into ruins. He suggested that unless Russia stabilises its economy, it will be forced into concessions.

Ukraine’s government continues to emphasise the need for Western financial support. With defence spending at 27 percent of gross domestic product, Kyiv requires around 5 billion US dollars each month to cover its budget shortfall. Western partners have already pledged significant sums, but Ukrainian officials warn that consistent funding will be essential to sustain operations until Russia’s economic capacity weakens further.

Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis recently argued that the war will be decided on the battlefield, not through negotiations. He praised Ukraine’s use of technology and innovation in striking Russian targets.

Meanwhile, the political dimension of the conflict continues. US leader Donald Trump has drawn criticism in Europe for his stance on Ukraine, with opponents highlighting his past proposals to recognise Crimea as Russian territory and lift sanctions on Moscow. Analysts note that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has consistently rejected compromise deals, signalling his ambition to control Ukraine entirely and expand influence further into Eastern Europe.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine’s strategy of combining international support with strikes on critical Russian infrastructure appears to be placing increasing pressure on Moscow. Observers say that the next six months will test both sides, with Ukraine seeking to maintain external backing while Russia struggles with shrinking revenues and growing domestic discontent.