NATO Expert Warns Russian Drone Incursions Mark Start of Wider War (Video)

(ESTONIA) – Russia’s latest drone and airspace incursions into NATO territory should be seen as the opening stages of a broader war against Europe, a leading defence analyst has warned.

George Barros, a Russia specialist at the Institute for the Study of War, told Times Radio that Moscow is already shaping the conditions for conflict with NATO through repeated drone incursions into Poland and Romania, as well as violations of Estonian airspace by Russian jets. He said these actions should not be dismissed as “hybrid warfare” but recognised as “phase zero” of a Russian war against Europe.

According to Barros, the recent drone operation was much larger in scale compared to earlier Russian incursions. He described it as an act of war, noting that NATO pilots and air defence units had to intercept and destroy Russian-controlled drones. “It was systems on systems warfare,” he said. “You do not send almost 20 drones into NATO territory by accident.”

Poland’s foreign minister has since suggested NATO aircraft should be allowed to shoot down Russian drones heading towards Poland while still over Ukrainian territory. Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has again called for a no-fly zone, though Western governments remain cautious, warning that such moves could risk direct confrontation with Russian forces.

Barros argued that if NATO accepts the risks of engaging Russian systems, then broader and stronger security guarantees for Ukraine must also be part of the debate. He said NATO must prepare for large-scale combat operations with Russia sooner than many European officials assume. While some believe Moscow will need three to five years to rebuild after its war in Ukraine, Barros warned Europe must be ready within 12 months of fighting ending in Ukraine.

He added that Russia’s drone campaign is evolving, with Ukrainian forces struggling to counter strikes on their supply lines. Moscow, he said, has gained near freedom to operate in intermediate ranges, while Ukraine’s previous advantage with Western-supplied HIMARS rocket systems has been reduced by Russian electronic warfare.

Barros stressed that sanctions alone will not stop Russia’s war effort, as the conflict itself is the main driver of economic decline in Moscow. Ukraine’s battlefield pressure, with tens of thousands of Russian casualties each month, remains the key factor weakening the Kremlin.

On Belarus, Barros said the country is now effectively under Russian control. Joint military exercises such as the recent Zapad drills further show how Belarusian forces are increasingly integrated into Moscow’s command structure. He warned that any easing of sanctions on Belarus, such as allowing its state airline to operate more freely, risks helping Russia bypass restrictions and obtain aviation components.

He also criticised India’s decision to send soldiers to participate in the Zapad drills, calling it a political message that strengthens Moscow at a time when it faces global condemnation for its invasion of Ukraine.

Barros concluded that the West should treat Belarus as an extension of Russian power and plan its security accordingly. He cautioned that dictator Vladimir Putin remains committed to outlasting the West and is ready to escalate beyond Ukraine if given the opportunity.